U.S. Auto Exports to Canada Expected to Drop

The counter-tariffs imposed by Canada on vehicles assembled in the United States are likely to redraw the map of new-vehicle sales in the country. The direct response to the Trump administration’s 25-percent tariffs on imports of vehicles and parts opens a lane – if not an entire eight-lane highway - for makers of vehicles built outside the U.S.

The counter-tariffs
The Canadian government retaliated against the U.S. on April 9 with similar but targeted tariffs. Notably, the 25-percent levy only applies to vehicles not compliant with the Canada–USA–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). For those that are compliant, only the portion of the vehicle containing non-Canadian and non-Mexican parts is surtaxed.

The counter-tariffs are on track to redefine the Canadian auto market, to the advantage of some and the disadvantage of others.

The big losers: Ford, GM and Stellantis
Especially vulnerable are the U.S. Big 3, among them Ford with its F-150, a Canadian market mainstay that has historically held the top sales spot. “Models built in the United States will see a marked decline,” says Sam Fiorani, VP of global forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions.

According to data from the Automotive News Research & Data Center, Ford imported only 181 vehicles from overseas out of a total of 278,398 sold in Canada in 2024. For Stellantis and GM, respectively 3.1 percent and 16.4 percent of sales came from imports from outside North America. All other imports came from the U.S.

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